Hyderabad: The Telangana monsoon forecast weakened on Friday after the India Meteorological Department (IMD) projected average to below-normal rainfall for the South Peninsular region.
The forecast raised concerns about the upcoming Southwest Monsoon season in Telangana.
In its second-stage long-range forecast for the 2026 Southwest Monsoon, the IMD projected below-normal rainfall across the South Peninsular region, including Telangana.
The department also warned that some isolated areas of Telangana could experience more heatwave days than usual during June, even after the monsoon begins.
Moreover, the IMD said the monsoon could advance more slowly than in previous years. Usually, monsoon activity strengthens during the first half of June.
The national forecast estimated seasonal rainfall at 90% of the Long Period Average (LPA). As a result, the IMD classified the country, especially southern states, in the below-normal category.
The department also estimated a 45% chance that seasonal rainfall could stay below 94% of the LPA.
Telangana monsoon forecast signals delayed start
The IMD projected June rainfall below the 92% mark. Consequently, Telangana could see a slower start to the monsoon season.
Earlier, several meteorologists expressed optimism about the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). They expected it to strengthen monsoon winds and increase rainfall across the Indian subcontinent.
However, the latest assessment changed that outlook.
The IMD confirmed that the IOD remains in a neutral phase. In addition, the department found no immediate signs of a shift to a positive phase.
According to the IMD, a positive IOD could counter some effects of the developing El Niño. However, current conditions do not indicate such a transition.
Telangana monsoon forecast remains under review
The IMD will release its detailed rainfall forecast for July in the last week of June.
Meanwhile, weather agencies will continue to monitor atmospheric and oceanic conditions.
State agencies, including the Telangana State Development Planning Society (TSDPS), will closely track rainfall patterns across districts.
Furthermore, officials said continuous monitoring would help assess the impact of changing weather conditions.
They added that evolving weather patterns could influence rainfall distribution across Telangana during the season.