DELHI: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Tuesday forecast an above-normal monsoon for 2025, bringing hopeful news for farmers and the agriculture sector. According to the department, rainfall between 104% and 110% of the Long Period Average (LPA) is considered above normal.
IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra stated that this year’s rainfall is expected to be around 105% of the LPA, amounting to approximately 87 centimetres. The LPA for the four-month monsoon season, from June to September, stands at 868.6 millimetres or 86.86 centimetres.
Above-normal rainfall expected in key regions
Regions likely to receive higher-than-average rainfall include Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Maharashtra, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, Marathwada, and adjoining areas of Telangana.
Below-normal rainfall forecast in some states
In contrast, below-average rainfall is anticipated in Bihar, Jammu & Kashmir, Ladakh, Tamil Nadu, and parts of the northeastern states.
The southwest monsoon typically enters the Indian mainland through Kerala around 1 June and begins its withdrawal from Rajasthan by the end of September. Most states receive rainfall between 15 and 25 June as the monsoon progresses northwards.
Mohapatra added that El Niño conditions are unlikely to develop this year. However, many parts of the country are currently experiencing severe heat, and the number of heatwave days is expected to rise from April to June. This increase in temperature may put pressure on power grids and result in water shortages.
Monsoon crucial for India’s agriculture
Around 52% of India’s agricultural land is dependent on the monsoon. Adequate rainfall during the season replenishes vital water sources and supports crop cultivation. Meteorologists have noted a concerning trend of reduced rainy days but increased instances of extreme rainfall, leading to recurring drought and flood situations.
The forecast of an above-normal monsoon comes as a welcome development, offering a potential reprieve to farmers and state administrations grappling with extreme weather conditions and water scarcity.
Long Range Forecast For the Southwest Monsoon Seasonal Rainfall during 2025
The southwest monsoon seasonal (June to September) rainfall over the country as a whole during 2025 is most likely to be above normal(>104% of the Long Period Average (LPA)).
Quantitatively, the… pic.twitter.com/5yHYgC1cUK
— India Meteorological Department (@Indiametdept) April 15, 2025