HYDERABAD: The country has received encouraging news on the weather front, with meteorologists forecasting a normal monsoon season for India this year. Neither drought nor excessive rainfall is expected, thanks to neutral climatic conditions in the Pacific Ocean.
According to experts, the absence of both El Niño and La Niña conditions—indicated by stable sea surface temperatures in the Pacific—has set the stage for balanced and favourable monsoon rains. The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) anticipates this neutral phase to persist through the upcoming winter season.
This is the first time in nearly 12 years that the Pacific Ocean’s surface temperatures have remained so stable without significant fluctuations. The end of La Niña has been officially confirmed by the US National Weather Service, which also predicts continued neutrality in ocean conditions through the winter.
This development is considered favourable for India’s monsoon cycle. Meteorologists explained that when the Pacific remains in a neutral phase—neither too warm (El Niño) nor too cold (La Niña)—it generally results in evenly distributed rainfall across the country. Such conditions reduce the likelihood of extreme weather events like droughts or floods.
El Niño, characterised by warmer ocean temperatures, typically weakens monsoon winds and reduces rainfall. In contrast, La Niña, caused by colder waters, often leads to excessive rain. The current neutral phase, however, is expected to provide steady and adequate rainfall without the extremes.
Former IMD Monsoon Forecaster Rajeevan supported the current forecasts, noting that neutral ocean conditions usually prevent severe weather impacts like droughts or floods. However, he cautioned that predicting monsoon behaviour under neutral conditions remains a complex task.
Private weather agency Skymet has also released its monsoon forecast, estimating that India will receive 103% of its long-period average rainfall this year, slightly above normal. It reaffirmed that this is the first time in over a decade that Pacific Ocean temperatures have shown such prolonged neutrality, contributing to optimism around this year’s rainfall distribution.
